monetary policy

Bitcoin is now synthetically created, through options, derivatives, & ETF. Does that mean it’s endless, just like all the US dollars? Legend has it that Satoshi Nakamoto (creator of the Bitcoin universe) decreed there can only be 21 million bitcoins ever, until the end of time. Stop laughing – people actually believe this. It underpins the entire idea that Bitcoin is valuable and could be worth $100,000 each or $1 million each. Or worth whatever someone wakes up tomorrow and decides for themselves.

Just 21 million? Not so fast. Yahoo Personal Finance (link below, seldom known for deep insights into money) has come to a startling and simple conclusion: We – the holders and traders of Bitcoin – can make the supply infinite. We are creating new “synthetic” Bitcoins with all the usual Wall Street approved chicanery: Bitcoin exchange trade funds, futures, swaps, derivatives. And the big enchilada – cryptocurrency banks which keep your Bitcoin in a "safe" wallet while lending Bitcoin to somebody else doesn't have any. This what banks do with your checking and savings accounts, which creates "synthetic dollars", too.

Are your eyes glazing over yet?

The amount of US dollars roaming the world in the wild at any given moment is a matter of debate. But it’s huge, and it’s always growing. Because of the american government keeps printing more, issuing treasury bills and all of the clever Wall Street hustles noted. Nobody pretends the US dollar is in any way fixed in quantity. Dollar Inflation seems to be INFINITE. Reality check: America bought Alaska for just $7 million. Don’t try and figure out what it’s worth using one of those ridiculous online “inflation calculators”. They say it’s just $140 million, and they are hysterically wrong. Even without the buildings, roads and ports – just the land alone – Alaska is worth $3.5 TRILLION ($8,375 avg per acre, multiplied by 425 million acres).

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong (COIN, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, market cap $50 billion +/-) is desperate to get the 2026 Clarity bill passed. This is understandable - he helped write it. And Mr. Armstrong has said he’d rather have no bill at all, rather than “a bad one”. The Clarity bill exempts Bitcoin (and every other crypto currency) from regulation like stocks.

Just imagine the gazillions of synthetic Bitcoins that will come pouring out these companies if they get their way. That could make the US dollar look like the safest bet.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

Bitcoin's 'Infinite' Paper Supply — Not Wall Street — Is The Real Problem, Says Analyst

Photo below - remember this? Ask your mom or dad about it, if you were still a kid 20 years ago.

The places where you and I keep our money are NOT a private investment banks. We have presumably safe checking and savings deposits at places like Chase, Bank of America, Citibank, Wells Fargo. However, all of those have been fined or placed under government restrictions for violations and unsafe practices at some point recently. Still, this as safe as it gets for ordinary customers like us.

But these institutions – and dozens of others – have mirror operations: Investment Banking. If some guy with a lot of money and doesn’t like what Bank of America pays as interest on a savings account, they can open an investment bank relationship. Returns will be higher. So will risks, since investment banks shower money on stuff which some regulators frown at. Those investment banks have waaaay different rules, and the money spigot – both in and out – can be turned off overnight. That’s what’s happening right now. (see link below)

“The last time funds blocked investors from getting their money back, Bear Stearns collapsed 6 months later” (direct quote from George Noble). This was, of course 2007-2008. But the crisis didn’t stop there. Practically every money center bank in America with FDIC insured deposits quickly ran into trouble. The government stepped in (President Bush) and started bailing everyone out – real banks, investment banks, wall street brokerages, Fannie Mae . . . even General Motors.

This bailout bonanza became known as TARP, and it cost taxpayers trillions. Historians are divided as to whether this really saved the entire system, or just the most reckless players.

There is no requirement for the government to rescue anything other than an FDIC insured bank. All the other TARP winners were outside of the orbit of US government obligation. Wall Street and automakers and everyone else who got a big check is probably still grateful.

So here we are again. Big shots who have uninsured deposits at risky institutions are demanding their money back. The investment bank managers are saying no. Blackrock/HPS Corporate Lending halted withdrawals when clients tried to withdraw $1.2 billion almost overnight. This is called a “bank run”, when clients become panicked that they will NEVER get their money back, and they run as fast as they can to the exit.

The current gulf war, skyrocketing oil prices, AI job impacts, and a possible global recession are triggering this bank run. Just like the collapse of the risky mortgage lending business did in 2007.

I’m conflicted at this point. Should I root for another nationwide financial bailout to save everyone, because everyone is too big to fail, not just a handful of money center banks? If that happens the national debt is going to the moon. If we refuse to bail out all the brain-dead bad investment banks and corporations, would that really risk the survival of legitimate banks which are regulated by at least 4 government agencies?

And does anyone really trust the Trump administration to (first) make a careful review of the facts and risks, and (then) chart a prudent course of action? This is the White House which recently showered lobster tails, sushi prep tables, and ice cream machines on the Pentagon because it didn’t know what else to do with unspent defense money.

I’m just sayin’ . . .

Veteran fund manager George Noble warns that a private credit crisis may be unfolding in real time

Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 - Wikipedia

Partisan Politics: The Ultimate Smokescreen? The Left demonizes the Right. The Right demonizes the Left. The media, for the most part, only stokes this rivalry. Both sides are up in arms, believing that they have to keep the other side from winning at all costs.

Meanwhile, governments and central banks everywhere keep issuing more money, devaluing its purchasing power in the process (causing inflation). They do this to finance wars, to bail out banks, to fund massive bureaucracies and social programs and/or to stimulate the economy. They do this regardless of which party is in power.

And they do it because they can. Because our money used to be backed by gold or other scarce commodities, now it’s backed by nothing. Therefore its supply can be inflated at will (and this is what the original meaning of the word inflation alludes to).

I don’t think they do it out of malice. They likely often have the best intentions, and entire economic theories have been created and are espoused by Nobel-winning economists and academics to justify why they do it. But at the end of the day, the power to issue money out of thin air is just too great for any person or group to wield responsibly. It inevitably gets misused and abused.

And it has disastrous consequences. Most people around the world are getting poorer in real terms, regardless of how hard they work, because their purchasing power is being inexorably eroded. And most people don’t fully realize that this is what’s happening. They intuit that something’s fundamentally very wrong, but don’t really know what it is. Stress, depression, anger, frustration and despair run rampant, and are usually misdirected.

And so governments of every stripe and their central banks keep diluting everyone’s purchasing power, effectively stealing our time and energy. You work to earn money, and the money you earn buys you less and less over time. This isn’t an accident, and it isn’t because of corporate greed, or because illegal immigrants are taking what’s yours. It’s the result of deliberate governmental monetary policy, and it’s a global phenomenon.

And they get to keep doing this because almost everyone is too busy fighting the other side to even notice or understand that it’s happening.

Partisan Politics: The Ultimate Smokescreen? The Left demonizes the Right. The Right demonizes the Left. The media, for the most part, only stokes this rivalry. Both sides are up in arms, believing that they have to keep the other side from winning at all costs.

Meanwhile, governments and central banks everywhere keep issuing more money, devaluing its purchasing power in the process (causing inflation). They do this to finance wars, to bail out banks, to fund massive bureaucracies and social programs and/or to stimulate the economy. They do this regardless of which party is in power.

And they do it because they can. Because our money used to be backed by gold or other scarce commodities, now it’s backed by nothing. Therefore its supply can be inflated at will (and this is what the original meaning of the word inflation alludes to).

I don’t think they do it out of malice. They likely often have the best intentions, and entire economic theories have been created and are espoused by Nobel-winning economists and academics to justify why they do it. But at the end of the day, the power to issue money out of thin air is just too great for any person or group to wield responsibly. It inevitably gets misused and abused.

And it has disastrous consequences. Most people around the world are getting poorer in real terms, regardless of how hard they work, because their purchasing power is being inexorably eroded. And most people don’t fully realize that this is what’s happening. They intuit that something’s fundamentally very wrong, but don’t really know what it is. Stress, depression, anger, frustration and despair run rampant, and are usually misdirected.

And so governments of every stripe and their central banks keep diluting everyone’s purchasing power, effectively stealing our time and energy. You work to earn money, and the money you earn buys you less and less over time. This isn’t an accident, and it isn’t because of corporate greed, or because illegal immigrants are taking what’s yours. It’s the result of deliberate governmental monetary policy, and it’s a global phenomenon.

And they get to keep doing this because almost everyone is too busy fighting the other side to even notice or understand that it’s happening.

Partisan Politics: The Ultimate Smokescreen? The Left demonizes the Right. The Right demonizes the Left. The media, for the most part, only stokes this rivalry. Both sides are up in arms, believing that they have to keep the other side from winning at all costs.

Meanwhile, governments and central banks everywhere keep issuing more money, devaluing its purchasing power in the process (causing inflation). They do this to finance wars, to bail out banks, to fund massive bureaucracies and social programs and/or to stimulate the economy. They do this regardless of which party is in power.

And they do it because they can. Because our money used to be backed by gold or other scarce commodities, now it’s backed by nothing. Therefore its supply can be inflated at will (and this is what the original meaning of the word inflation alludes to).

I don’t think they do it out of malice. They likely often have the best intentions, and entire economic theories have been created and are espoused by Nobel-winning economists and academics to justify why they do it. But at the end of the day, the power to issue money out of thin air is just too great for any person or group to wield responsibly. It inevitably gets misused and abused.

And it has disastrous consequences. Most people around the world are getting poorer in real terms, regardless of how hard they work, because their purchasing power is being inexorably eroded. And most people don’t fully realize that this is what’s happening. They intuit that something’s fundamentally very wrong, but don’t really know what it is. Stress, depression, anger, frustration and despair run rampant, and are usually misdirected.

And so governments of every stripe and their central banks keep diluting everyone’s purchasing power, effectively stealing our time and energy. You work to earn money, and the money you earn buys you less and less over time. This isn’t an accident, and it isn’t because of corporate greed, or because illegal immigrants are taking what’s yours. It’s the result of deliberate governmental monetary policy, and it’s a global phenomenon.

And they get to keep doing this because almost everyone is too busy fighting the other side to even notice or understand that it’s happening.